Social Media in Wartime, Betting on the Future and A.I. Passes the Smell Test

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By Ketrin Agustine

Kevin Roose and

Davis Land and

Dan Powell, Marion Lozano and

As the Israel-Hamas war broke out, misinformation and fake imagery surged on X, the platform formerly known at Twitter. Can Meta’s Threads fill the real-time news hole that X created? Should it?

Then, Kevin debriefs us on his reporting on Manifold Markets, where Silicon Valley Rationalists bet on the likelihoods of different events.

Plus: The company digitizing smell.

Photo Illustration: The New York Times. Photo: Dado Ruvic/Reuters

Today’s Guest:

  • Alex Wiltschko is the founder of Osmo, a company trying to digitize smell.

Additional Reading:

  • Casey Newton on how the war in Israel may change Threads.

  • Some tech insiders believe betting can change the world.

  • The company Osmo put out a research paper showing that an A.I. model it had created was performing better than the “average human panelist” in predicting odor. We want to hear from you.

“Hard Fork” is hosted by Kevin Roose and Casey Newton and produced by Davis Land and Rachel Cohn. The show is edited by Jen Poyant. Engineering by Chris Wood and original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano and Rowan Niemisto. Fact-checking by Caitlin Love.

Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Pui-Wing Tam, Nell Gallogly, Kate LoPresti and Jeffrey Miranda.


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